The yield curve is a graphic representation of market yield for a fixed income security plotted against the maturity of the security. The yield curve is positive when long-term rates are higher than short-term rates. (Source:
CFTC)
In finance, the yield curve is the relation between the interest rate (or cost of borrowing) and the time to maturity of the debt for a given borrower in a given currency. For example, the current U.S. dollar interest rates paid on U.S. Treasury securities for various maturities are closely watched by many traders, and are commonly plotted on a graph such as the one on the right which is informally called "the yield curve." More formal mathematical descriptions of this relation are often called the term structure of interest rates.
The yield of a debt instrument is the annualized percentage increase in the value of the investment. For instance, a bank account that pays an interest rate of 4% per year has a 4% yield. In general the percentage per year that can be earned is dependent on the length of time that the money is invested. For example, a bank may offer a "savings rate" higher than the normal checking account rate if the customer is prepared to leave money untouched for five years. Investing for a period of time t gives a yield Y(t). This function Y is called the yield curve.
Y is often, but not always, an increasing function of t. Yield curves are used by fixed income analysts, who analyze bonds and related securities, to understand conditions in financial markets and to seek trading opportunities. Economists use the curves to understand economic conditions.The yield curve function Y is actually only known with certainty for a few specific maturity dates, the other maturities are calculated by interpolation.
Yield curves are usually upward sloping asymptotically; the longer the maturity, the higher the yield, with diminishing marginal growth. There are two common explanations for this phenomenon. First, it may be that the market is anticipating a rise in the risk-free rate. If investors hold off investing now, they may receive a better rate in the future. Therefore, under the arbitrage pricing theory, investors who are willing to lock their money in now need to be compensated for the anticipated rise in rates — thus the higher interest rate on long-term investments.
However, interest rates can fall just as they can rise. Another explanation is that longer maturities entail greater risks for the investor (i.e. the lender). Risk premium should be paid, since with longer maturities, more catastrophic events might occur that impact the investment. This explanation depends on the notion that economy faces more uncertainties in the distant future than in the near term, and the risk of future adverse events (such as default and higher short-term interest rates) is higher than the chance of future positive events (such as lower short-term interest rates). This effect is referred to as the liquidity spread. If the market expects more volatility in the future, even if interest rates are anticipated to decline, the increase in the risk premium can influence the spread and cause an increasing yield.
The opposite situation — short-term interest rates higher than long-term — also can occur. For instance, at November 2004, the yield curve for UK Government bonds (i.e. the bonds which the UK Government issues to borrow money - see gilts) was partially inverted. The yield for the 10 year bond stood at 4.68% but only 4.45% on the thirty year bond. The market's anticipation of falling interest rates causes such incidents. Negative liquidity premiums can exist, specifically if long-term investors dominate the market, but the prevailing view is that positive liquidity premium dominates, so only the anticipation of falling interest rates will cause an inverted yield curve. Strongly inverted yield curves have historically preceded economic depressions.
The yield curve may also be flat or hump-shaped, due to anticipated interest rates being steady, or short-term volatility outweighing long-term volatility.
Yield curves move on a daily basis; representing the market's reaction to news. A further "stylized fact" observed is that yield curves tend to move in parallel. That is, an increase in the cost of borrowing money for one year is frequently accompanied by a similar shift at points further along the curve.
Types of Yield CurveThere is no single yield curve describing the cost of money for everybody. The most important factor in determining a yield curve is the currency in which it is denominated. The economic situation of the countries and companies using each currency is primary in determining the yield curve. For example the sluggish economic growth of Japan throughout the late 1990s and early 2000s has meant the yen yield curve is very low (rising from virtually zero at the three month point to only 2% at the 30 year point). By contrast the British pound curve ranges from 4-5% along its curve.
Different institutions borrow money at different rates, depending on their creditworthiness. The yield curves corresponding to the bonds issued by governments in their own currency are called the government bond yield curve (government curve). Banks with high credit ratings (Aa/AA or above) borrow money from each other at the LIBOR rates. These yield curves are typically a little higher than government curves. They are the most important and widely used in the financial markets, and are known variously as the LIBOR curve or the swap curve. The construction of the swap curve is described below.
Besides the government curve and the LIBOR curve there are corporate (company) curves. These are constructed from the yields of bonds issued by corporates. As corporates have lower creditworthiness than governments and most large banks these yields are typically higher. Corporate yield curves are often quoted in terms of a "credit spread" over the relevant swap curve. For instance the five-year yield curve point for Vodafone might be quoted as LIBOR +0.25%, where 0.25% (often written as 25bps or 25 basis points) is the credit spread.
Normal Yield CurveThrough most of the post-Great Depression era to present the yield curve has been called "normal" when yields rise as maturity lengthens, that is, when the slope of the yield curve is positive. This positive slope reflects investor expectations for the economy to grow in the future and, importantly, for this growth to be associated with a greater risk that inflation rises in the future than falls. This expectation for higher inflation in the future than the present generates both an expectation that the central bank will tighten monetary policy by raising short term interest rates in the future to slow economic growth and dampen inflationary pressure and the need for a risk premium associated with the uncertainty about the future rate of inflation and the risk this poses to the future value of cash flows. Investors price these risks into the yield curve by demanding higher yields for maturities further into the future.
However, "normal" being associated with a positive slope has not always been the norm. Through much of the 19th century and early 20th century the US economy experienced trend growth with persistent deflation, not inflation. During this period the yield curve was typically inverted, reflecting the fact that deflation made current cash flows more valuable than future cash flows. During this period of persistent deflation, a 'normal' yield curve was negatively sloped.
Steep Yield CurveHistorically, the 20-year Treasury bond yield has averaged approximately two percentage points above that of three-month Treasury bills. In situations when this gap increases (e.g. 20-year Treasury yield rises relatively higher than the three-month Treasury yield), the economy is expected to improve quickly in the future. This type of curve can be seen at the beginning of an economic expansion (right after the end of a recession). Here, economic stagnation will have depressed short-term interest rates; however, rates begin to rise once the demand for capital is re-established by growing economic activity.
Flat or Humped Yield CurveA flat curve is apparent when all maturities have same yields, whereas a humped curve results when short-term and long-term yields are equal and mid-term yields vary from those of the short-term and long-term. A flat curve sends signals of uncertainty in the economy. This mixed signal can revert back to a normal curve or could later result into an inverted curve.It cannot be explained by the Segmented Market theory.
Inverted Yield CurveAn inverted curve occurs when long-term yields fall below short-term yields. Under this abnormal and contradictory situation, long-term investors will settle for lower yields now if they think the economy will slow or even decline in the future. An inverted curve may indicate a worsening economic situation in the future. In addition to potentially signalling an economic decline, inverted yield curves also imply that the market believes inflation will remain low. This is because, even if there is a recession, a low bond yield will still be offset by low inflation. However, technical factors such as a flight-to-quality or global economic or currency situations may cause demand for bonds on the long end of the yield curve causing rates to fall. This was seen in 1998 during the Long Term Capital Management failure when there was a slight inversion on part of the curve. (Source:
Wikipedia)
Key Terms: Bonds, Bond Markets, Bond Yield, Yield Curve
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